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20121027
20121104
Search Results 0 to 25 of about 26 (some duplicates have been removed)
. >> rose: so you said 75 percent likely obama will be elected? >> that's right because the states are what w call the tipping pot states tt would swing the electorial college margin he has a two or three-point lead, so it is not for sure but we can use statistics and data that just look up how often those lead translate into a win. > > rose: zero so is critical point here is that many people say paul, david brooks wrote a column. >> sure. >> as you know basically saying a poll is a paragraph of a moment in time. >> right. >> rose: period. >> uh-huh. >> rose: no prophecy from that. >> my understanding, what you say is, yes, no prophecy, but you can look and reference it to oth times and with similar circumstances existed and then project forward. >> that's right, so and the way we look at it is the confidence should increase the closer you get to election day so if you look at polls in june, and june of 1988 michael dukakis was way ahead of bush, john kerry was ahead of gore, so polls in the spring and summer aren't very useful and you might look at what kind of economic conditions are like
. also to a state where they have been targeting for a year now, and as in 2008 the obama campaign has more people knocking on doors and making money calls, so the voter outreach things is why they may do better than say, ohio than in the state they haven't focused on like missouri. >> rose: we just went through hurricane sandy. >> yes. >> rose: what impact might it have? >> well, see this is where we are going more into major speculation and i want to be more careful. i think the general wisdom gom of the political science literature is that when there is some kind of a disaster, it is usually easier for the incumbent zero to occupy that space, that is a national function of government. >> rose: meaning that the incumbent gains something because he is in a seat of power and, therefore, he is even responding to an emergency. >> that obama can go and staley stay in washington, d.c. and monitor the disaster, right, and the press corps will treat that a as being appropriate and presidential strategy where romney goes and has. >> rose: a fund raiser. >> a fund raise never ohio and say it i
changed the way this election works. this is the argument the obama campaign has given for states like nevada, colorado, florida, even northern virginia. that the demographic changes have been so big that we have missed that. and that they have been able to tap into those new voters they have registered, the latinos. the big number these have registered in nevada, that they have been able to register them and get them to the polls in a way that is much more effective than we know. >> rose: john dickerson, thank you. >> thanks so much. when we come back thempact of t digital revolution on books and publishing. stay with us. john steinbeck once said the profession of book writing makes horse racing seem like a soiled, stable business. those words have never sounded truer than they do today. traditional publishings is in the threat from all angles am book stores are closing around the country. is there is a growing fear print technology is dying out all together. as always with great change comes great opportunity. digital technology has the capity bri neorms of reading and new modes of
are going to make a big difference. if very conservative republicans win some of these seats, even in states that aren't considered competitive, that could really push the republicans to challenging president obama in new way if he has a second term. or to push mitt romney further to the right on spending issues, cuts to the budget, cuts to the federal programs. so this is really going to be a crucial place because so much of policy ends up stopping in the senate. >> and even supreme court decisions or supreme courts nominees possibly, right? >> yea that's a big issue that you're hearing not that much about on the campaign trail because generally republicans tend to vote in favor of republican nominees and democrats tend to vote in favor of democratic nominees. but, they're not talking about that and there's likely to be at least one vacancy in the coming year. >> and how does that what does that do to the tone and tenor of how compromising or uncompromising the senate becomes? >> one thing to keep an eye on is the fight for leadership because if republicans are in either the majority or min
think there has been some significant steps that we need to praise the decisions met by the obama administration to guarantee. >> rose: like the dream act. >> absolutely. those are elements of a greater recognition of the need to take stock of the reality of what immigration has done for the united states. >> rose: i've talked about president calderon about climate change and his own strong environmental efforts to do something. there is also this. some people are predicting that not mexico but brazil has the greatest growing economy in latin america in this decade. is that something you believe, are there numbers to indicate that. certainly when you think of the discovery of oil offshore and to fuel that kind of explosion. >> let alone that charlie we also have significant reserves of shale gas. we also have right now the second largest growing economy in all of the oecd countries. we have very low levels of inftion. we ve ry low levels of unemployment. we have just created this year 780,000 new jobs. >> rose: but is tourism down because of all of the stories of violence again
Search Results 0 to 25 of about 26 (some duplicates have been removed)